Jayslacks says that he likes my NPD posts, and who I am I to deny him? Here we are, after the would-be megaton last week that we’d never get NPD numbers again EVAR. It’s a good thing too, because this month’s numbers continue to be interesting. These numbers are taken from 1UP and the confirmed sales numbers thread on NeoGAF. Say what you like about NeoGAF, but when it comes to NPD numbers, they have it immediately and accurately, and often with more in depth sales data then other sites provide. Anyway, enough meandering. Let’s get down to business. Here’s a quick warning: the post that follows, is long. Really long.

First, we’ll go over the hard numbers by month for each console. These are as follows (with last months numbers in parentheses):

• Nintendo Wii – 519000 (501000)
• Xbox 360 – 366000 (527800)
• Playstation 3 – 121000 (119000)
• Nintendo DS – 458000 (495800)
• PSP – 286000 (284500)
• PS2 – 184,000 (215000)

To start with, these numbers in comparison to last month are actually somewhat deceptive. The NPD reporting period for September took into account 5 weeks of sales data, and October was for 4 weeks. When broken down by week, the numbers for each console look quite different, and with one exception, much better than they initially appear.

Xbox 360

The 360 this month failed to hit the numbers it posted in September, and some people claim this is disappointing, citing the drop of 161,000 units as evidence that the sales bubble has burst. However, this is not the case for several reasons. First, there’s the previously mentioned shorter reporting period. When broken down weekly, the 360 sold 91.5 K a week in October, down from roughly 105 K in September, a drop of about 13 percent. Given that Halo 3 sales dropped by about 87 percent (specific numbers later), this is a pretty great carry over from the month before. Year over year, the 360’s sales are also significantly improved, as the console is up more than 60 percent from last October.

What does this mean? Halo 3 is clearly moving hardware, as the game continues at number 1 for the second month in a row. To argue otherwise at this point rings hollow. If the system sold 60 percent less a year ago and the price has come down only by 50 dollars, then something has changed. People are buying hardware for Halo 3, and if Microsoft renews the advertising push prior to Black Friday, we’ll see this continue for November and December numbers. Even after the lion’s share of the game’s sales numbers, Microsoft has continued with very strong momentum.

Microsoft has played their holiday hand more or less perfectly this year. The warranty extension in July has taken hold and allayed many people’s fears over the console, the price drop in August and the dark horse of Bioshock (which Microsoft certainly aided given 2K’s adamant assertions that the game will never be on PS3) along with a strong year for Madden got people excited, and Halo is proving to be the final necessary first party blow. I don’t necessarily think November this year will beat last year’s numbers, as there isn’t the big system pushing game that Gears of War was. However, with Mass Effect and strong third party titles and generally better accepted multi-platform releases, I expect that the momentum will hold and snowball for the rest of the year.

Nintendo Wii

Well, what can really be said? A lot, actually. First, the Wii didn’t just sell better than it did last month, it crushed its numbers from last month, selling 25 percent more per week for a total of 125 K weekly. However, the software numbers continue to ignore this for the most part, with a notable exception of Guitar Hero III, which was right behind the 360 version for number 3 in this month’s software charts. I fully expect Nintendo to sell about 25 percent more weekly this month as well, as there are even more rumors of increased stock. Now more than ever, I’m of the opinion that Nintendo is shrewdly manipulating stock levels in the US to stoke demand, as the Wii continues to be readily available in Japan while selling out here.

The PS3

In a way, the PS3 this month is similar to the Wii numbers wise in that the PS3 also posted a much healthier increase month over month than it would appear. While month to month hardware sales are up only 2000 units, weekly numbers are up by more than 20 percent. Unfortunately, this does include approximately 5 days of 40 GB and reduced price PS3 sales, making this sales increase bittersweet. The introduction of the 40 GB SKU is not off to a great start – anecdotally, the sales increases domestically and worldwide appear to be for the 60 GB SKU here in the states and the phased out 80 GB SKU overseas. The other downer is the continued inability to find a system moving title, as Ratchet and Clank failed to release anywhere near the top 10 , and does not appear to have had an appreciable effect on hardware adoption. I deny that I’m contradicting previous statements about Halo 3 here; 360 sales were significantly improved month over month upon Halo 3’s release, and it moved a lot of software. Ratchet has failed to do so, selling only 74,500 units in approximately 2 weeks of release.

Sony has announced very publicly that their sales numbers have jumped dramatically with the release of the 40 GB PS3. However, Sony is notorious for claiming numbers shipped to retailers as hardware “sold”, and I speak from personal experience that there are piles of 40 GB PS3s sitting at Best Buys and other retailers all over the country. We’ll see how numbers pan out next month, but I still doubt highly that the PS3 will be able to hit the benchmark it’s tried and failed for all year: outselling the 360.

Ratchet’s poor sales also make me worried for Uncharted’s chances at retail against a player base that has remained largely apathetic toward the system’s software. While Uncharted isn’t as cuddly as Ratchet was, adult themes didn’t help Heavenly Sword (which was also nowhere to be found in the top 10 this month). Sony is running out of cards to play, and if a spark doesn’t catch for the system soon, Sony is in for even more pain post holiday. Haze is not going to do well on the system, and if it does release this year, based on my time with it and the preview coverage it’s receiving, the game is going to get destroyed by all but the most enthusiastic PS3 and Free Radical fan sites.

Everything else
The DS continues to sell well. It’s cheap, and it has a good variety of titles. Its numbers are also up by about 15 percent from last month week by week. But what can be said at this point? As for the PSP, it continues to sell well after its redesign and the earlier price drop, and it had a sales increase of around 25 percent. It’s never going to beat the DS, but after Sony moved its focus away from being a media platform and made it a games machine, it’s found a good groove in the last 5 months. Finally, the PS2 sold only 2,000 more a week this month, and while Guitar Hero III performed well on the system, the 360 was right behind it with a significantly smaller user base (we’re talking combined sales of Guitar and non guitar SKUs of the game). We’re finally really seeing the fading of the system, several months after we thought it would happen. However, it’s still got some legs, and with a possible price drop and continued developer support (gotta love those Wii ports; Mercenaries 2 comes to mind), it will continue to anchor the gaming division for the time being. Its days as the lord of sales has passed though.

Software sales minutiae

Halo 3 dropped significantly, but it still handily trounced any other single platform title release for the month. Guitar Hero III sold incredibly well on the 360 and the Wii, but didn’t squeeze into the top 10 on the PS3. Wii Play retains a place on the top ten as usual, and the Orange Box made a much better showing than Half Life ever has on a console. I guess bundling 5 amazing titles in one disc will do that.

I think the more interesting numbers are the ones that aren’t on the top ten, or that we didn’t see at all. Metroid Prime 3 sales continued a spiral downward: the game sold 218 K in August, 167 K in September, and 45 K in October. This does not bode well for Wii owners hoping for additional hardcore titles for the system, as these numbers don’t justify the amount of development time or resources the title required. It just isn’t cost effective. Meanwhile, Project Gotham 4 sold a shockingly bad 38,300 copies, which can be largely attributed to Microsoft packaging a better driving game with 360 consoles. In this light, the departure of Bizarre as a second party developer makes more sense.

Nowhere to be found, finally, was the enormous budgeted Stranglehold. The title never posted good numbers, and has now evaporated. Not even the long delayed release of the PS3 version could bring up its awareness. I don’t expect Midway’s quarter to get any better, as Blacksite: Area 51 is releasing amidst technical difficulties on the PS3 and middling to average review scores, while Unreal 3 won’t likely sell large numbers on launch either. Regardless, expect next month’s numbers to be a catfight between the most tightly concentrated group of high profile releases this year. Games I don’t expect to find in the top 20 are Kane and Lynch, Hellgate: London, or the aforementioned Blacksite.

And that’s all for tonight. I’m tired.

-Aegies